As we mentioned here, having been a pointless see-saw for 18 months, we now believe the race to the buzzer over the next six months makes Brexit the main theme to watch.
Therefore, expect these irregular but frequent updates.
Today a couple of crucial new pieces of information appeared.
1 the ECJ has hinted, if not spoken.
Overnight the Advocate General (chief law advisor) on the European Court of Justice declared that he considered the UK to be perfectly within her rights to withdraw her “divorce petition” Article 50.
“Therefore, in our minds, Brexit remains the only serious risk for contagion. But even there, only an accident should prevent the path of least resistance resulting in #MeRef2. So even there we see a far from apocalyptic result. Some worry that the Europeans have to agree to allow the UK to have a “do-over”, facing a decision from the European Court of Justice, but we’re confident that another referendum will suit their pallets as much as the UK.”
Given the ECJ rarely goes against the advice of its AG, it certainly looks likely they will decide in favor.
And therein, one of the major stumbling blocks for a second referendum will have been removed. #MeRef2
2 The UK government is declared the first in history to be in contempt of Parliament.
You may have noticed the historic vote which just took place in UK Parliament. A vote to declare the UK Govt in contempt of parliament.
This is the first time in history a UK govt has been found guilty of contempt. This is a big day in the history of parliamentary democracy.
If you don’t understand why, don’t worry, few do. Even the lawyers don’t fully know.
But if you’re intrigued, this is the best explanation I’ve seen.
But does it change the BREXIT outcome?
Well it could – the govt, faced with ignoring the vote and incurring the wrath of Parliament (& perhaps even suspension of ministers ahead of the Dec 11 vote on the Brexit deal) OR agreeing to publish the information, caved in.
So, the question is, does this advice make the Brexit deal look even less workable?
If it does, then YES, this contempt vote will impact Brexit.
3 The Grieve amendment passed.
Again, another embarrassing loss for PM May. But in fact, the 20-odd Tory MPs that mutinied may have done May a favor.
In essence this amendment means the Parliament has the option to vote against a “no deal” nuclear strategy by May, come January. This may be helpful to May if she wants to make sure her deal is seen as the “only option”. This will probably be the excuse given by certain Tory grandees that voted against her on this issue.
That said, she is having the sort of run of losses that would get a soccer manager sacked by Christmas.
Going to be a long hard winter for UK government(s??)