Searching for explanation where it really matters
Markets have been taking center stage since the vol-ruption nearly a year ago, and while realized volatility has indeed increased alongside implied, options markets Vix-volatility, many have taken this to mean the end is nigh and all manner of skies are about to fall. This may be true, but there is another, orthogonal perspective which …
Continue reading "Financial markets and the credit cycle – Are we there yet dad?"
Like a scene from the hit movie “Gone Girl”, PM May has been found to have been a political walking corpse all along. And Now she’s been “found”, what’s in store for the Brexit fiasco? Well having been handed her real P45 by her party ( remember when the prankster handed her a prank P45?) …
Wondering why sterling is plummeting ? Well In cricket, that game only the English, and her ex-empire play, its courtesy to applaud a batsman upon reaching 50 runs in an innings. So is the pound applauding that achievement today ? Have those who are battering PM May, got to the important milestone of 48 letters, (required …
Continue reading "Brexit – Isn’t it cricket to applaud the half century?"
Brexit - The breakfast of commentators - never stops throwing up new twists and turns. As we’ve discussed here and here, the proposed “Withdrawl agreement” is unworkable and either PM May pulls it in an attempt to survive, or it is voted down. We’re reminded of that urban myth - the one that tells the …
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With only hours (well dozens of them) left before the existential Vote on PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement, no surprise it’s becoming “feisty”. However a couple of incredible articles, and letters, seem to be being “ignored” by the press. It seems to me, that when the ex-head of MI6 tells you that the agreement endangers UK National …
Continue reading "Brexit – When James Bond’s old boss talks, you’d better listen"
Amongst all the “sky fell already” comments I read ubiquitously, I wondered is today a welcome timeout for reflection? Perhaps even thanks might be appropriate. So in this short note we try to give some perspective on the “collapse”, and with it draw a deep breath on what might go right in the next few …
Continue reading "Shock horror! – Stocks have gone nowhere (slowly) this year."
Investors are disillusioned with active investment. Once the staple of institutional and retail investment practice, active now has an awful image – one of high cost mediocre offerings. While the rot was initially confined to equity, it has started to seep into fixed income. Here we try to understand why, and offer a simple solution, …
Continue reading "Get Active – why Active is in such disarray and how to save it"
This review of the transition from LIBOR markets, initiated by the FCA statement in July 2017, was written in September 2017, whilst in a previous life. It remains relevant, albeit out of date. The full document was long and intended to provide a glossary of the issues clients would face as we progressed towards the …
Continue reading "The end of LIBOR – Rumors of my death have not been exaggerated (RODNE)"
In this post we detail the reference material supporting a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives. References Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks - Darrell Duffie and Jeremy C. Stein, JEP spring 2015 The Alternative Reference Rates Committee June 16, 2017 Presentation Materials Market Participants Group on Reforming Interest …
Continue reading "LIBOR / RODNE – References and Appendices."
Inflated Opinions 