Searching for explanation where it really matters
Today I want to tell a story – of how history rhymes, how human behavior can suddenly change, and how technology is set to enforce change. What’s to be positive about - how about everything? A traveler in Ireland asked a local how to get to Tipperary – the local rubbed his chin, thought a …
Continue reading "New Directions – the Fourth Turning into the Third Industrial Revolution."
That we're still discussing the US/China relationship, especially the trade front, should not be a surprise. What is a surprise is the one-dimensional perspective commentators take. To us, this is nothing like a conventional trade war, and instead is the predictable "conflict of self interests"; a path that the two superpowers have long been on. …
Continue reading "US/China Trade Relations – China Syndromes?"
While too much has been said or written about Brexit already (especially by us!) the mere fact that the vote on PM May's deal takes place (hopefully) tomorrow, it's important to take a rain check on where we are. We remain convinced this is a major, perhaps even systemic, issue for markets and economies, as …
Back from the Christmas break, refreshed and decompressed, this week we'll be taking a look at what's in store for 2019 - a year full of challenges, and therefore opportunities. We'll write on one of the major themes for the year ahead, and at the end of the week, we'll resume the weekly inflated opinions. …
Continue reading "Things to watch in 2019 – The year ahead in six themes."
As we mentioned here, having been a pointless see-saw for 18 months, we now believe the race to the buzzer over the next six months makes Brexit the main theme to watch. Therefore, expect these irregular but frequent updates. Today a couple of crucial new pieces of information appeared. 1 the ECJ has hinted, if …
The Brexit clock ticks down to the last few months and still no way “out” in sight. Despite the optimism that a deal has been done, the political mood sours by the minute. Here we explore the ironic similarity between current events and the scene almost two hundred years before, and look for lessons offered.
My ex-colleage and good friend Ken Leech often recounted that “the story of interest rates is the story of inflation”. Put differently, where inflation goes determines where interest rates go. Today, inflation is considered a mystery. Despite the trillions of dollars poured into the US, European and Japanese economies over the past ten years, inflation is …
Continue reading "Cracking the Genetic Code of Inflation – the future is “metallic gray”"
Inflated Opinions 