Searching for explanation where it really matters
anything to do with inflation
With the Fed already several hikes (and many billions in portfolio run-off ) down the road to policy re-alignment, it's natural for a new Fed Chair to consider a pause for reflection. Especially with financial markets doing most of the work, tightening financial conditions and reminding both market and economic participants alike, that the cycle …
Continue reading "Fed – the pause that nurtures the teenage bull"
Our new weekly post - all our comments and views summarized and reviewed on a Monday morning. Slightly reduced notes this week in honor of the holidays. That was the week that was Brexit - Corbyn foot in mouth Little to add on Brexit (you’ll be relieved to hear). We wrote here and here …
Our new weekly post - all our comments and views summarized and reviewed on a Monday morning. With new added "pic of the week".Every week we will summarize our thoughts from the previous week, employing the following format; What we thought (going into the week), What happened (during the week) and What changed for us. …
Our new weekly post - all our comments and views summarized and reviewed on a Monday morning. Every week we will summarize our thoughts from the previous week, employing the following format; What we thought (going into the week), What happened (during the week) and What changed for us. Enjoy..................................... What we thought After a …
We measure inflation using “indices”. They are at best, very rough guides to the change in “average” prices in our economy. But they’re fraught with problems, like “whose average?” Or indeed who is Mr and Mrs Average? So the debate as to which method is righ is very important. We’re seeing such a debate in …
Continue reading "Fahrenheit 101 – why inflation indices are so controversial."
This website is born of frustration. After many episodes of inflation, some of which triggered financial crisis, it remains clear that never in the field of finance have so many understood so little about so much (of importance). That concept is inflation. This website is an attempt to address that. So what is inflation, and …
Continue reading "Born of Frustration – how to think about inflation"
Active investment is under siege – once the staple of institutional and retail investment practice, active now has an awful reputation. I recently met up with Colin Lloyd of Linear Investments in London, and in this short video we explore how we got here and why “Passive” investing isn’t the solution for a community desperate …
Continue reading "Video – Paul discusses the current plight of Active Investment"
It’s nearly 6 yrs since Mario Draghi compared the euro to a bumblebee and uttered “whatever it takes” to calm markets. So was born the Easy Bee, re-opening the credit channel and promoting some semblance of economic growth through out the Eurozone. A success ? Well to win, at first you have to survive. It’s …
My ex-colleage and good friend Ken Leech often recounted that “the story of interest rates is the story of inflation”. Put differently, where inflation goes determines where interest rates go. Today, inflation is considered a mystery. Despite the trillions of dollars poured into the US, European and Japanese economies over the past ten years, inflation is …
Continue reading "Cracking the Genetic Code of Inflation – the future is “metallic gray”"
Inflated Opinions 