US/China Trade Relations – China Syndromes?

That we're still discussing the US/China relationship, especially the trade front, should not be a surprise. What is a surprise is the one-dimensional perspective commentators take. To us, this is nothing like a conventional trade war, and instead is the predictable "conflict of self interests"; a path that the two superpowers have long been on. …

Fed  – the pause that nurtures the teenage bull

With the Fed already several hikes (and many billions in portfolio run-off ) down the road to policy re-alignment, it's natural for a new Fed Chair to consider a pause for reflection. Especially with financial markets doing most of the work, tightening financial conditions and reminding both market and economic participants alike, that the cycle …

Bitcoin – The beginning of the end?

Today's events, where Bitcoin scammers have sent bomb threats to schools and businesses, demanding payment in Bitcoin, demonstrates what we've all known for some time. That, given its perfect anonymity,  Bitcoin is the favored route for extreme criminal "commerce". How long before the authorities ban it, and take control of the crypto currency game? Today …

Brexit seems to mean “sterling crisis” – but does it mean a trip to the IMF as well?

Britain is used to “lights out” humor. But today seems different. In the UK, there are clear parallels with the 1970s, a decade that saw the country enter Europe, confirm it with a referendum, and then seek an IMF bailout. In this longer post we explore those parallels, and consider a subset of the risks, …

The (last) flight of the Easy Bee … how we learned to love the World’s favorite Central Bankline…

It’s nearly 6 yrs since Mario Draghi compared the euro to a bumblebee and uttered “whatever it takes” to calm markets. So was born the Easy Bee, re-opening the credit channel and promoting some semblance of economic growth through out the Eurozone. A success ? Well to win, at first you have to survive. It’s …

Cracking the Genetic Code of Inflation – the future is “metallic gray”

My ex-colleage and good friend Ken Leech often recounted that “the story of interest rates is the story of inflation”. Put differently, where inflation goes determines where interest rates go. Today, inflation is considered a mystery. Despite the trillions of dollars poured into the US, European and Japanese economies over the past ten years, inflation is …

The end of LIBOR – Rumors of my death have not been exaggerated (RODNE)

This review of the transition from LIBOR markets, initiated by the FCA statement in July  2017, was written in September 2017, whilst in a previous life. It remains relevant, albeit out of date. The full document was long and intended to provide a glossary of the issues clients would face as we progressed towards the …

LIBOR / RODNE – References and Appendices.

In this post we detail the reference material supporting a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives. References Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks - Darrell Duffie and Jeremy C. Stein, JEP spring 2015 The Alternative Reference Rates Committee June 16, 2017 Presentation Materials Market Participants Group on Reforming Interest …