Searching for explanation where it really matters
As expected (even by us) MV2.5 failed. But, and in Brexit there has to be a but, the dynamic has changed. The April 12 date now looms large, though the "installers" didn't mean to make it so. In this note we explain how, and what’s likely to come next. Be afraid, the King is not …
Latest betting seems to be that May’s deal will be voted on Friday and pass, such that UK will leave (and enter the transition phase) on May 22nd. Obviously that means PM May’s deal will pass before April 12th, thus allowing May to step down as leader. In this post we “may” disagree a little. …
Continue reading "Brexit – If May leaves in April, we leave in May ?"
As we discussed here, we felt there was little chance of MPs actually plotting out a clear path for an "alternative Brexit". But we were confident that a second referendum would be the most popular choice amongst those who could actually make their mind up. That seems to have been the case, so our view …
We expected today to be "exciting", so we thought we might need to write again. So a brief update. Early IndicationsFirstly, as we summarized here, Speaker Bercow chose 8 (half) the motions proposed. Crucially they include the Kyle-Wilson (now Becket et al) amendment which would require "ratification by the public" - aka Ref2 - before …
As we flagged earlier in the week, Parliament will be voting later today on a range of "motions" selected by the Speaker Bercow, from a list of 16. This list should provide guidance on which path Parliament would like the Brexit process to take. PM May and her government have different ideas, and in a …
Throughout the Brexit debacle, we’ve been consistent on our view of the outcome. The only feasible outcome, and therefore most likely, seems to us to be extend, revoke and revote - resulting in a second referendum. We’re still amazed that this is not consensus - indeed we can find no one with our confidence of …
With proceedings following our previous note almost to the letter, it’s been unnecessary to write again until now. Today Parliament attempted to take full control of the proceedings having seen the acquiescence by the EU to extend past March 29th. In this short note we explain how we see this panning out, and our confidence …
In what may seem an unusual post for the Inflated Opinions website, we wanted to pay homage to the heroes we grew up with, and tell the story of one of soccer’s greatest giant killings. We hope it will inspire bravery and perseverance on a broader spectrum than just soccer. 50 years ago today, 15th …
Continue reading "Oh’ Danny’s Boys – the story of a soccer giant killing"
Seems it’s all going to plan When we last wrote, we could see the negotiations on the road to nowhere, and little reason to change our core view ; 90% Extension followed by (conditional on) second referendum 10% no deal crash out (NDC) The song remains the same. If there's a bustle in your hedgerow …
Continue reading "Brexit – The song remains the same – no stairway to heaven "
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