Brexit – Indicative Intentions

We expected today to be “exciting”, so we thought we might need to write again.  So a brief update.

Early Indications

Firstly, as we summarized here, Speaker Bercow chose 8 (half) the motions proposed.

Crucially they include the Kyle-Wilson (now Becket et al) amendment which would require “ratification by the public” – aka Ref2 – before any withdrawal agreement could be approved by Parliament.

Therefore, later today we should see that this was the most commonly approved of the 8 amendments. If we’re right, while non-binding, this should encourage the Labour Party to formally back and whip a later (binding) vote of a second referendum.

Heading off at the pass

Meanwhile, the newly forged “Munich Peace” brigade in favor of May’s current deal, now including enemies like ERG and DUP, will enjoy watching PM May have to admit to the 1922 Committee that she’s cooked – again.

Many seem to have forgotten that she’s already agreed to step down once – before the required General election date of 2022. And to date, that promise remains.

Could those excitedly leaking the private contents of the 1922 Committee meeting have forgotten?

Soon upgraded to Sooner

So far May has not detailed when she will quit – just that she will (inevitably) quit. Since Brexit, if its going to take place at all, has to be before 2022, her promise to quit before negations concluded, and that she would not lead the second phase of negotiations, all remain consistent with “soon”.

So did PM May just upgrade her Quit-note from “Soon” to “Sooner” ?

Still No Wiser

So for the “Munich Peace” brigade as we’re calling them, they have yet another “indication” of intent, with no actual date. Not even a conditionality.

We doubt they’ll be fooled. But having resorted to tie-pulling, anything is possible.

Letter of Intent

So watch out for the following “letters”, notifying each of the motions that are being debated and voted on.

• Motion B: ‘No Deal’ – Baron
• • commits to leaving without a deal on April 12
• Motion D: ‘Common Market 2.0’ – Nick Boles
• • Directs Govt to change Political Declaration to chase EFTA membership and access to the Single Market, and customs union and open NI border (Norway+’)
• Motion H: ‘EFTA and EEA’ – Eustice
• • Given AR50 does not remove UK from EEA, simply add EFTA and stir.
• • No Customs Union
• Motion J: ‘Customs Union’ – Clarke
• • customs union
• Motion K: ‘Labour’s Alternative Plan’ – Corbyn
• •  Labour’s “vague” version of WA
• • Essentially a permanent Customs Union ++
• Motion L: ‘Revocation to avoid No Deal‘ – Cherry
• • Allow a vote 2 days before Brexit to revoke Article 50 if No Deal remains the outcome
• Motion M: ‘Confirmatory Public Vote’ – Beckett/ Kyle/ Wilson
• • Will not allow any ratification of any Withdrawal Agreement without the approval of the UK public with a confirmatory vote – #Ref2
• Motion O: ‘Contingent Preferential Arrangements‘ – Fysh
• • replace withdrawal agreement with free trade agreement
• • ‘Canada style’ – ruled out by the EU

The ties have it

To most this makes MV3 most likely now – but we remain unconvinced, and still plump for a chaotic spat between feuding public school boys (and girls), ties at dawn, and a move towards no deal cash out (NDC) which is essential to get to our desired conclusion – a second referendum.

NB – these are the (inflated) opinions of the author, and are NOT investment advice