Searching for explanation where it really matters
We expected today to be "exciting", so we thought we might need to write again. So a brief update. Early IndicationsFirstly, as we summarized here, Speaker Bercow chose 8 (half) the motions proposed. Crucially they include the Kyle-Wilson (now Becket et al) amendment which would require "ratification by the public" - aka Ref2 - before …
In what may seem an unusual post for the Inflated Opinions website, we wanted to pay homage to the heroes we grew up with, and tell the story of one of soccer’s greatest giant killings. We hope it will inspire bravery and perseverance on a broader spectrum than just soccer. 50 years ago today, 15th …
Continue reading "Oh’ Danny’s Boys – the story of a soccer giant killing"
As we’ve been writing the past year, with no possibility of a Brexit deal being made, we saw only extension followed by a second referendum as the likely outcome. We feel the events of the past 10 days have made this more obvious, though still surprisingly not consensus. So now we move onto what we …
Today's events, where Bitcoin scammers have sent bomb threats to schools and businesses, demanding payment in Bitcoin, demonstrates what we've all known for some time. That, given its perfect anonymity, Bitcoin is the favored route for extreme criminal "commerce". How long before the authorities ban it, and take control of the crypto currency game? Today …
The futility of trying to untangle this unholy mess is becoming clear What are the options of the UK Government (and others)? In this very short note, we cut to the chase. Raab outs in the headlights? With the resignation of the chief negotiator, the UK government faces a rebellion that will endanger its future. …
For those wondering where we've been throughout the month of October (and most of September for that matter), a quick and humble explanation.
The much awaited, but much misunderstood BoJ meeting passed today. Like many Central Bank meetings (and indeed many Central Banks), these events are difficult to read precisely. And this no exception. The BoJ has managed to disappoint the full spectrum of market participants - from those that expected a clear reversal of policy, to those …
This website is born of frustration. After many episodes of inflation, some of which triggered financial crisis, it remains clear that never in the field of finance have so many understood so little about so much (of importance). That concept is inflation. This website is an attempt to address that. So what is inflation, and …
Continue reading "Born of Frustration – how to think about inflation"
Investors are disillusioned with active investment. Once the staple of institutional and retail investment practice, active now has an awful image – one of high cost mediocre offerings. While the rot was initially confined to equity, it has started to seep into fixed income. Here we try to understand why, and offer a simple solution, …
Continue reading "Get Active – why Active is in such disarray and how to save it"
My ex-colleage and good friend Ken Leech often recounted that “the story of interest rates is the story of inflation”. Put differently, where inflation goes determines where interest rates go. Today, inflation is considered a mystery. Despite the trillions of dollars poured into the US, European and Japanese economies over the past ten years, inflation is …
Continue reading "Cracking the Genetic Code of Inflation – the future is “metallic gray”"
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