New Directions – the Fourth Turning into the Third Industrial Revolution.

Today I want to tell a story – of how history rhymes, how human behavior can suddenly change, and how technology is set to enforce change. What’s to be positive about - how about everything? A traveler in Ireland asked a local how to get to Tipperary – the local rubbed his chin, thought a …

US/China Trade Relations – China Syndromes?

That we're still discussing the US/China relationship, especially the trade front, should not be a surprise. What is a surprise is the one-dimensional perspective commentators take. To us, this is nothing like a conventional trade war, and instead is the predictable "conflict of self interests"; a path that the two superpowers have long been on. …

Financial markets and the credit cycle – Are we there yet dad?

Markets have been taking center stage since the vol-ruption nearly a year ago, and while realized volatility has indeed increased alongside implied, options markets Vix-volatility, many have taken this to mean the end is nigh and all manner of skies are about to fall. This may be true, but there is another, orthogonal perspective which …

Fed  – the pause that nurtures the teenage bull

With the Fed already several hikes (and many billions in portfolio run-off ) down the road to policy re-alignment, it's natural for a new Fed Chair to consider a pause for reflection. Especially with financial markets doing most of the work, tightening financial conditions and reminding both market and economic participants alike, that the cycle …