Searching for explanation where it really matters
As the Brexit clock continues to run down to the buzzer, we’ve entered a new phase - one where the PM’s only negotiating strategy is that of (headless) chicken. By allowing Parliament, which recognizes its moral obligation to prevent chaos, to flail hopelessly from one amendment to another, PM May hopes to run the clock …
Today I want to tell a story – of how history rhymes, how human behavior can suddenly change, and how technology is set to enforce change. What’s to be positive about - how about everything? A traveler in Ireland asked a local how to get to Tipperary – the local rubbed his chin, thought a …
Continue reading "New Directions – the Fourth Turning into the Third Industrial Revolution."
That we're still discussing the US/China relationship, especially the trade front, should not be a surprise. What is a surprise is the one-dimensional perspective commentators take. To us, this is nothing like a conventional trade war, and instead is the predictable "conflict of self interests"; a path that the two superpowers have long been on. …
Continue reading "US/China Trade Relations – China Syndromes?"
Markets have been taking center stage since the vol-ruption nearly a year ago, and while realized volatility has indeed increased alongside implied, options markets Vix-volatility, many have taken this to mean the end is nigh and all manner of skies are about to fall. This may be true, but there is another, orthogonal perspective which …
Continue reading "Financial markets and the credit cycle – Are we there yet dad?"
With the Fed already several hikes (and many billions in portfolio run-off ) down the road to policy re-alignment, it's natural for a new Fed Chair to consider a pause for reflection. Especially with financial markets doing most of the work, tightening financial conditions and reminding both market and economic participants alike, that the cycle …
Continue reading "Fed – the pause that nurtures the teenage bull"
While too much has been said or written about Brexit already (especially by us!) the mere fact that the vote on PM May's deal takes place (hopefully) tomorrow, it's important to take a rain check on where we are. We remain convinced this is a major, perhaps even systemic, issue for markets and economies, as …
Back from the Christmas break, refreshed and decompressed, this week we'll be taking a look at what's in store for 2019 - a year full of challenges, and therefore opportunities. We'll write on one of the major themes for the year ahead, and at the end of the week, we'll resume the weekly inflated opinions. …
Continue reading "Things to watch in 2019 – The year ahead in six themes."
Inflated Opinions 