Searching for explanation where it really matters
As scientists discover a huge hole at the center of British politics, sucking all energy and sanity from the country, we review where we are on the timeline and suggest we’ve actually fallen nowhere fast. We still see Ref2 on the event horizon. Meanwhile the UK economy is in trouble. A week is a long …
Continue reading "Brexit – Astonomers post first picture of Brexit !"
So it's Monday again, and that means Brexit Votes. It's also April 1st, notoriously called April Fool's Day. In this note, we update thoughts on what happened recently, including a significant speech from a controversial German politician. In not heeding the lessons of history, We're all in danger of becoming fools. Indicative Votes 2.0As we …
Latest betting seems to be that May’s deal will be voted on Friday and pass, such that UK will leave (and enter the transition phase) on May 22nd. Obviously that means PM May’s deal will pass before April 12th, thus allowing May to step down as leader. In this post we “may” disagree a little. …
Continue reading "Brexit – If May leaves in April, we leave in May ?"
Throughout the Brexit debacle, we’ve been consistent on our view of the outcome. The only feasible outcome, and therefore most likely, seems to us to be extend, revoke and revote - resulting in a second referendum. We’re still amazed that this is not consensus - indeed we can find no one with our confidence of …
While too much has been said or written about Brexit already (especially by us!) the mere fact that the vote on PM May's deal takes place (hopefully) tomorrow, it's important to take a rain check on where we are. We remain convinced this is a major, perhaps even systemic, issue for markets and economies, as …
Britain is used to “lights out” humor. But today seems different. In the UK, there are clear parallels with the 1970s, a decade that saw the country enter Europe, confirm it with a referendum, and then seek an IMF bailout. In this longer post we explore those parallels, and consider a subset of the risks, …
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