Searching for explanation where it really matters
With the Tory Party in disarray, and PM May set to step down before the next General Election, perhaps sooner, attention moves to the contenders to lead an (anything but) United Kingdom. Whether the main parties split or not, the wave of populism and nationalism engulfing the World provides the perfect environment for politicians like …
Continue reading "Brexit – The XTC of making plans for Nigel"
As scientists discover a huge hole at the center of British politics, sucking all energy and sanity from the country, we review where we are on the timeline and suggest we’ve actually fallen nowhere fast. We still see Ref2 on the event horizon. Meanwhile the UK economy is in trouble. A week is a long …
Continue reading "Brexit – Astonomers post first picture of Brexit !"
So it's Monday again, and that means Brexit Votes. It's also April 1st, notoriously called April Fool's Day. In this note, we update thoughts on what happened recently, including a significant speech from a controversial German politician. In not heeding the lessons of history, We're all in danger of becoming fools. Indicative Votes 2.0As we …
As expected (even by us) MV2.5 failed. But, and in Brexit there has to be a but, the dynamic has changed. The April 12 date now looms large, though the "installers" didn't mean to make it so. In this note we explain how, and what’s likely to come next. Be afraid, the King is not …
Latest betting seems to be that May’s deal will be voted on Friday and pass, such that UK will leave (and enter the transition phase) on May 22nd. Obviously that means PM May’s deal will pass before April 12th, thus allowing May to step down as leader. In this post we “may” disagree a little. …
Continue reading "Brexit – If May leaves in April, we leave in May ?"
As we discussed here, we felt there was little chance of MPs actually plotting out a clear path for an "alternative Brexit". But we were confident that a second referendum would be the most popular choice amongst those who could actually make their mind up. That seems to have been the case, so our view …
As we flagged earlier in the week, Parliament will be voting later today on a range of "motions" selected by the Speaker Bercow, from a list of 16. This list should provide guidance on which path Parliament would like the Brexit process to take. PM May and her government have different ideas, and in a …
Throughout the Brexit debacle, we’ve been consistent on our view of the outcome. The only feasible outcome, and therefore most likely, seems to us to be extend, revoke and revote - resulting in a second referendum. We’re still amazed that this is not consensus - indeed we can find no one with our confidence of …
With proceedings following our previous note almost to the letter, it’s been unnecessary to write again until now. Today Parliament attempted to take full control of the proceedings having seen the acquiescence by the EU to extend past March 29th. In this short note we explain how we see this panning out, and our confidence …
Seems it’s all going to plan When we last wrote, we could see the negotiations on the road to nowhere, and little reason to change our core view ; 90% Extension followed by (conditional on) second referendum 10% no deal crash out (NDC) The song remains the same. If there's a bustle in your hedgerow …
Continue reading "Brexit – The song remains the same – no stairway to heaven "
