Brexit – The song remains the same – no stairway to heaven 

Seems it’s all going to plan 

When we last wrote, we could see the negotiations on the road to nowhere, and little reason to change our core view ;

• 90% Extension followed by (conditional on) second referendum 
• 10% no deal crash out (NDC)

The song remains the same.

If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow

Previously we discussed the effects that uncertainty over the Irish border would bring – and we feel we saw the “bustle in the hedgerow” with these bomb threats on the mainland last week.

They are not “the real thing” – they are warnings of what to expect if the “backstop” is not taken into appropriate account.

The stakes are high.

Vote Vote Vote

Were back the the voting phase, starting with tomorrows “must win” vote on the latest version (hard to see the differences) of May’s “deal.

With the EU playing hardball, it’s hard to see any last minute compromises that overturn the likely 200++ majority against her deal. Though we expect her to get on that plane and “look as though she’s trying”.

Indeed, as well as being in the vote phase we’re also in the blame-game phase. So the purpose of the plane to the European capitals will be to be able to say “we tried, they’re just not listening.” Meanwhile the threats are starting – “sign here or the divorce bill will only go up.”

We’d ignore these – they are likely internal EU discussions on how to balance the inevitable request (demand) to extend the negotiations past March 29th.

The only one that matters is the demand that a second referendum results from the extension. The rest is just smoke plumes.

Meaningless vote

So May will come back, make some comments to the press, then the rumor-tweets will start. This evening will be fun for those with popcorn. But we’d suggest ignore it all and instead watch Bohemian Rhapsody on Netflix. Or Led Zep in concert.

With such a weight of aversion to her deal, even if there is some miracle cure for the Irish backstop, we’d bet May loses.

The  “meaningful vote” for her deal will be defeated.

Deal or no deal

Then the vote for the No Deal outcome will be played out. This could actually be Wednesday as an attempt is made to amend May’s deal, allowing another vote on it again in the same session – not normally allowed without significant changes and “improvements”.

In this “toxic” environment party politics have been abandoned, in the name of “survival” and minimize blame.

How anyone can predict what will happen is beyond us.

Suffice it to say, we believe this vote will also fail – Parliament has already made clear that it will not simply stand by and let UK crash out without a fight. Only anti-democracy anti-Parliament forces could accept this vote.

More Extend and Pretend

Finally, the vote on the extension request will take place (in all likelihood). While experts call this as close, we feel the above discussion of Parliamentary duty will force a win for those who seek an Extention RATHER than crash out.

So by Thursday we should know where we stand. At least to the point that we know which direction the UK faces – towards the abyss, or away from the abyss. For certain, she and her PM will remain on the ledge.

In our opinion, the only choices remain extension and/or revocation of AR50. It doesn’t matter much which is taken – both paths seem parallel to us.

There’s a lady who’s sure

Pm May has at least stuck to her guns throughout, and seen the bulk of the process through, unlike her predecessor, who took to the hills on at the first fence.

But there is a non-zero risk that Pm May may go, resigning on her acknowledgement that her deal cannot be voted through on any alternative terms. We think this is unlikely – she actually survived a no confidence vote and prevented a leadership challenge. Why quit now?

When all are one and one is all

To be a rock and not to roll

And she’s buying the stairway to heaven

Indeed, given the 18 days from today (15 from Thursday) her resignation would leave the country and her party in a mess ahead of the deadline. For sure, an extension would be required and granted. But her party would likely disintegrate into the factions it already outwardly resembles.

It would be an act of cowardice only substantiated on the basis of a desire to destroy her party. If you think Neville Chamberlain is infamous.

‘Cause you know sometimes words have two meanings

Throughout the negotiations, the EU has seemed largely relaxed and comfortable with their position. Little wonder when the opponent looks like a schizophrenic, but the reality is, the EU has its own problems, and many inside are waiting to see how this all ends.

So be careful with the word Extension. All words have multiple meanings, and this word will almost certainly be abused as it’s discussed.

Unless the terms of the extension – 3 weeks, 3 months, 21 months, etc – are clarified it will be largely meaningless.

But the mere fact that it’s being discussed will buy time – crucial time that no one has, as that buzzer looks large.

We feel there will likely be a cooling off period after March 29th, of perhaps a fortnight (yep that word again – popular game with the kids) before a formal extension period is set. This does not require revocation of AR50 as many suggest – but it may be best served by a formal revocation by the UK.

That said, this will come back to haunt the Parliamentary process as leavers scream the word betrayal.

Instead, bet on a simple “extension” without due process. This can and will be challenged n the courts later for sure. But it’ll be pointless, yet will prevent the clear revocation of the democratic process that a revocation of AR50 would create.

In a word, it may prevent bloodshed.

Ooh, it really makes me wonder

This all leaves us convinced the true probabilities remain;

• 90% Extension followed by (conditional on) second referendum
• 10% no deal crash out (NDC)

However we recognize this is NOT consensus – which is precisely why we continue to update you with our thoughts. But if things don’t change, why write an update?

And it’s whispered that soon, If we all call the tune

So we continue to expect the logic to appear, and the largely emotional dislike of these outcomes to meet the cold hard logic of reason – just as that ship commander had to, when confronted with the “we’re a lighthouse, your call”.

Then the piper will lead us to reason

And a new day will dawn

Yes, we’re still optimists.

And my spirit is crying for leaving

In my thoughts I have seen

Rings of smoke through the trees

And the voices of those who standing looking

There will be those who cry foul, and may even take to the streets, or worse. That cannot be avoided. But in the long run, the damage to UK mainstream party politics is the real cost.

Those who have preferred to see smoke signals of relent, from both May and the EU, and assumed they would get their way, “the people’s way” are set to be very very angry and disappointed.

And the forests will echo with laughter.

If the stores are all closed

Recall we discussed here, out belief that the risk of immediate apocalypse from a NDC is low. No instead the impact will be felt over many months and are largely unpredictable. But they won’t be limited to shops without food and medicines.

Stairway to heaven?

Well no, this is far from “heaven”. But there is still time to prevent a major fracture in the country, and to move towards a meaningful Brexit, if the country, on a second attempt, still wants it – whatever “it” it.

But there will be a bustle in the hedgerows of England, Scotland, and the rest of UK – that’s for sure. Don’t be alarmed – this is how democracy works.

If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow

Don’t be alarmed now

It’s just a spring clean for the May queen

Yes, there are two paths you can go by

But in the long run

There’s still time to change the road you’re on

Extention or revocation of AR50 lead inexorably to #MeRef2

 

Lyrics from Stairway to heaven 

There’s a lady who’s sure

All that glitters is gold

And she’s buying a stairway to heaven

When she gets there she knows

If the stores are all closed

With a word she can get what she came for

Oh oh oh oh and she’s buying a stairway to heaven

There’s a sign on the wall

But she wants to be sure

‘Cause you know sometimes words have two meanings

In a tree by the brook

There’s a songbird who sings

Sometimes all of our thoughts are misgiving

Ooh, it makes me wonder

Ooh, it makes me wonder

There’s a feeling I get

When I look to the west

And my spirit is crying for leaving

In my thoughts I have seen

Rings of smoke through the trees

And the voices of those who standing looking

Ooh, it makes me wonder

Ooh, it really makes me wonder

And it’s whispered that soon, If we all call the tune

Then the piper will lead us to reason

And a new day will dawn

For those who stand long

And the forests will echo with laughter

If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow

Don’t be alarmed now

It’s just a spring clean for the May queen

Yes, there are two paths you can go by

But in the long run

There’s still time to change the road you’re on

And it makes me wonder

Your head is humming and it won’t go

In case you don’t know

The piper’s calling you to join him

Dear lady, can you hear the wind blow

And did you know

Your stairway lies on the whispering wind

And as we wind on down the road

Our shadows taller than our soul

There walks a lady we all know

Who shines white light and wants to show

How everything still turns to gold

And if you listen very hard

The tune will come to you at last

When all are one and one is all

To be a rock and not to roll

And she’s buying the stairway to heaven

Songwriters: Jimmy Page / Robert Plant

Stairway to Heaven lyrics © Warner/Chappell Music, Inc