With proceedings following our previous note almost to the letter, it’s been unnecessary to write again until now. Today Parliament attempted to take full control of the proceedings having seen the acquiescence by the EU to extend past March 29th. In this short note we explain how we see this panning out, and our confidence that Ref2 will take place.
Boomtown Rats meets Mamas and Papas
In our last note we explained we felt confident May’s deal would lose, and that Parliament would vote to allow the EU to grant an extension (as it’s NOT up to the UK to give itself one without revoking AR50 completely).
This is precisely what happened.
We also wrote that the EU, after much huffing and puffing, and threat and moan, would have no choice but to grant the UK conditional extension of Brexit past March 29 at 11pm.
This was also correct – and we have a conditional extention to April 12th based upon May’s deal NOT passing in Parliament, or to May 22nd if it does.
Where we’re still not yet correct, though we actually have greater faith now, is on the ultimate condition becoming a second Brexit referendum (Ref2).
In this note we paint the scenario we see taking us to that Ref2 outcome. A script that the Mamas and Papas could have written.
Note, we have never suggested we know the outcome of Ref2 – only it’s inevitability.
Monday, Monday, so good to me
You may recall the concept of the “Cooper Amendment “ which we’ve discussed here.
In a nutshell, it, and it’s descendants (Ghosts) are attempts by Parliament to take more and more control of the Brexit process, which remains in Government hands for the moment. Some control has already been captured – eg the requirement for Parliament to have the final say on any deal the Government secures with the EU, but they are NOT in full control – hence the (small) risk of the eventual no deal crash out (NDC) scenario .
So today, after the rather predictable EU summit where PM May presented her options and approach and the EU granted the extention described above, this amendment was logged in the Parliamentary calendar;
The important part being;
“At end add “and, given the need for the House to debate and vote on alternative ways forward, with a view to the Government putting forward a plan for the House to debate and vote on, orders that –( a) Standing Order No. 14(1) *(which provides that government business shall have precedence at every sitting save as provided in that order) shall not apply on Wednesday 27 March;*”
In other words on Monday they will likely vote to give themselves freedom (from Government) to discuss, motion and vote, on solutions to the Brexit dilemma.
There is talk the Government will bring this amendment themselves (instead of Letwin, et al) and they would have precedence. A motion brought by Government would be binding, rather than just (non-binding) advisory as this would otherwise be.
We feel this doesn’t matter, as we feel there are sufficient Tory MPs prepared to defy any whip and allow this motion to pass.
There is also talk the Speaker Berkow won’t select this amendment for debate, instead choosing the others on the list. Again we fail to see how this would be in the spirit of allowing Parliament to find a solution, with the buzzer (and cliff edge) so close.
Monday mornin´, it was all I hoped it would be
On the assumption that this (ghost of Cooper) amendment passes, we move onto Wednesday where MPs will have a free day to play “hunt the Brexit solution”.
Below we discuss how that will likely look, but first, the Boomtown rats version….
Oh Monday mornin´, Monday mornin´ couldn´t guarantee
If the motion doesn’t pass, we’re back to a form of stalemate where PM May and the government are still in control of the process.
While difficult to tell what happens in this scenario, considerations have to include a vote of no confidence in the Government, on the basis that it is in control of the Brexit process but unable to find a solution Parliament seems fit.
Yes, by Wednesday we could (instead) have a new Government.
More likely is the move to bring the MV3 vote within the next two weeks (or at least before before April 12th). This could be a long drawn out affair and therefore nothing much happens for the rest of the coming week.
Similarly, as dark forces like a vacuum, behind the scenes moves to oust PM May should also be taking place. The less one sees of these, the more powerful they will be. The last time, where a vote of no confidence (VoNC) in May actually took place within the Tory Party, the PM “survived”.
Either way, if Monday’s vote fails and we “lose Wednesday’s free debate”, expect the darker outcomes to grow in probability, especially NDC.
That Monday evenin´ you would still be here with me
And of course, the debate on Monday could be a long one, filibustered perhaps, and take us into the long hours. But those wondering if MPs will stick around to vote are missing the point – Parliament is at threat, and it’s every MP’ duty to stay and see this through. More importantly it’s the duty of the Speaker Bercow to make sure this vote takes place, and we’re confident he will.
Oh Monday, Monday, how could you leave and not take me
Obviously PM May’s current stance remains that of Her deal or No deal crash out (NDC) – now on April 12th. To that extent her approach to Monday will be one of trying to prevent the amendment passing and therefore some expect heavy whipping of the Tory MPs.
Those who think that is enough forget the government does NOT have a safe majority – they rely on the 10 MPs of the Northern Irish DUP – who’s Deputy leader Nigel Dodd’s said today
“The government has been far too willing to capitulate before securing the necessary changes which would get an agreement through the House of Commons…..That failure is all the more disappointing and inexcusable given the clear divisions and arguments which became evident amongst EU member states when faced with outcomes they don’t like” and he implied the DUP won’t accept a deal which “poses a long-term risk to the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom.”
In a nutshell, there seems to us little risk Monday’s vote will go the way of the Government.
To that end expect the Government to surrender and signal no whip.
Also, we feel there is almost no chance we see a vote on May’s deal (MV3 as it’s called) this coming week.
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
We’ll probably get an idea of the sort of votes the MPs will table for discussion on Wednesday over this weekend.
Amongst the typical “unicorn/peace on earth” utopian options look out for the important ones. The demand to fully revoke AR50 – cancelling Brexit for the foreseeable future, and the additional requirement that this take place with the promise of a second referendum are the one’s we expect.
Could we just revoke and be done with it ?
No.
The British people chose, by simple majority, to leave the EU. This is of itself, irrefutable, as the referendum was posed as a definitive sovereign act by the then PM Cameron. Of itself, this is the final word, until the people have had the opportunity to have another.
We categorically uphold that fact.
However, it’s plain, over the 1,002 days since that fateful decision, that few of those voters have more than a modicum of understanding of what this entails.
Furthermore, given the impact will depend upon the final outcome (eg Norway versus Canada versus NDC) and so even those who understand the finer points can’t be sure of the impact.
Finally, as with all economic prediction, there is no consensus on the economic impact, even over the following 10 days even if you knew which model (eg Norway) would be adopted. “Show me a two handed economist and ‘I’ll show you a lot of hand waving”.
But we have a petition!
Much is made of the petition that’s on the Government website – when it’s not crashing it. Upto 3million demand that we revoke – plain and simple.
Let’s say (the website stays up and ) we get to 6 million.
What of the other 40 million voters?
This is of course nonsense.
Revoke and Revote
If we’re going to take any notice of these “petitioners” the only logical conclusion is to go back to the whole electorate – approx 46.5million
Indeed, even that is controversial. Remember a person may not be on the register by their own choice, or due to in eligibility such as not yet being old enough, being in prison, or not possessing UK citizenship. Also EU Citizens living in the UK were ineligible unless they were from Malta, Cyprus, or the Republic of Ireland.
Some would add back another 18 million to the 46.5mil to take us to the full 60+ million population.
So the 3 million are pretty meaningless in the broad “people’s opinion”.
To over rule the 17.4 million “leave voters”, would look anti-democratic, and unconstitutional.
For Parliament to enforce such an act would almost certainly provoke images of Cromwell and King Charles.
We’re amazed that so few can see the inevitability of Ref2 even now.
Midas May as the best incentive for Ref2
One thing few have noticed – PM May is adamant that Ref2 is NOT what the “people want”. For a start, the people probably don’t like being told what they do or don’t want.
Secondly, we suspect anything PM May tells you ‘is not what you want’ is probably something you want for the sake of it.
Few have a stronger Midas touch than PM May. Long may May’s denial continue.
But whenever Monday comes, A-you can find me cryin´ all of the time
Whatever happens, someone won’t be happy. But we feel, at least Parliamentary authority will remain intact, buying us a little more time to come to the only solution that prevents potential catastrophe – a second referendum.
Expect #MeRef2 to become a twitter hashtag soon.
So to get you all in the mood for Monday, some Mamas and Papas…
Bah-da bah-da-da-da
Bah-da bah-da-da-da
Bah-da bah-da-da-da
Monday, Monday, so good to me
Monday mornin´, it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday mornin´, Monday mornin´ couldn´t guarantee
That Monday evenin´ you would still be here with me
Monday, Monday, can´t trust that day
Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday mornin´ you gave me no warnin´ of what was to be
Oh Monday, Monday, how could you leave and not take me
Every other day, every other day
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
A-you can find me cryin´ all of the time
Monday, Monday, so good to me
Monday mornin´, it was all I hoped it would be
But Monday mornin´, Monday mornin´ couldn´t guarantee
That Monday evenin´ you would still be here with me
Every other day, every other day
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
A-you can find me cryin´ all of the time
Monday, Monday, can´t trust that day
Monday, Monday, it just turns out that way
Oh Monday, Monday, won´t go away
Monday, Monday, it´s here to stay
Oh Monday, Monday
Oh Monday, Monday
Songwriters: John Edmund Andrew Phillips
Monday Monday lyrics © Universal Music Publishing Group
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