Brexit – Motion Sickness

As we flagged earlier in the week, Parliament will be voting later today on a range of “motions” selected by the Speaker Bercow, from a list of 16. This list should provide guidance on which path Parliament would like the Brexit process to take.

PM May and her government have different ideas, and in a development straight out of TV’s Blackadder, the arch enemy of her deal Rees-Mogg has decided to back her deal, along with the DUP.

In this note we describe what to look out for, and poke some fun.

Loco motion

On Monday we suggested, despite all the ney-sayers, that Parliament would be given free vote on Wednesday to debate and (non-binding) vote on a number of motions which could describe the current preference landscape of Parliament. This might even create a geography that Parliament would later “geologise” into a hard rock surface which would become binding.

Then the Government would find itself truly between rock and Hard Brexit.

The list of 16 motions are tabled here.

Having settled on motions which further bind the Government’s hands, and remove the risk of a crash out scenario (NDC), Parliament would have been happy just to debate and pontificate. Indeed they’ll get another chance, all being well, on Monday April 1st of all (fools) days…

A “peace” of paper

Mr Chamberlain famously declared “here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine. Some of you, perhaps, have already heard what it contains but I would just like to read it to you:“.

Instead of a piece of paper from Munich, today we were greeted with a piece of newspaper from the Daily Mail.

For sure, the surprise U-turn by the European Research Group (ERG) led by Rees-Mogg, has changed the chemistry of the debate. With the Irish DUP also joining Rees-Mogg in this surrender worthy of Neville Chamberlain, PM May’s deal suddenly has life again and the prospect of bringing a third time lucky MV3 vote later in the week has risen dramatically in some eyes.

In our eye the ayes still have it, and Bercow will deny the Revote on substantially the same deal, as he promised earlier.

Blackadder, series 2 episode MV3

Little surprise that the UK’s natural tendency to resort to public school squabbling has trickled through the cracks;

While entertaining (if you enjoy Blackadder, Yes minister, or the like) its true meaning is anything but funny.

Now the war is breaking out formally, and this plays into our belief that in order to get to Ref2, we have to stand on the edge of NDC facing over the precipice.

So our conclusion remains that we’re about to enter the NDC-scare phase, where No deal seems the best outcome for all, rather than vote for a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) that it’s most bitterest critics have decided to back, only to prevent the “other side winning” – how Etonian.

Savile Row

So we expect Bercow to choose several, perhaps as many as half, of the motions for debate. Crucially he will choose the motion that allows a path to Ref2.

Provided he does, an awful row will break out between the two wings of the Tory party, culminating in stalemate, So expect us to first cascade towards crashing out without a deal, only to result in sounder heads to suggest a second referendum.

Indeed we can see the opportunist Labour Party already being measured up ready to don that suit once it’s become fashionable.

Amusing to watch socialists slipping into Tailors frequented by Old Etonians, but as Orwell suggested, all suits are wearable, but some are more fashionable than others.