Brexit – Making your mind up

As we discussed here, we felt there was little chance of MPs actually plotting out a clear path for an “alternative Brexit”. But we were confident that a second referendum would be the most popular choice amongst those who could actually make their mind up. That seems to have been the case, so our view that the “in fighting” takes over now, ushering in a seriously scary phase which makes “no deal crash out” the most likely outcome, seems on target. However as regular readers will know, we feel that this “scare” will usher in compromise support for a second referendum as the best worst next outcome. But we keep 10% chance of crashing out just in case,

The curse of Eurovision

Those who’ve suffered a Eurovision Song Contest will have been well prepared for last night’s voting.

While the song choices are almost uniformly unpalatable, tactical voting ensures someone wins. The tactical voting itself is fascinating, seeming to follow national and cultural prejudices up-to a point. France votes for everyone except UK, Norway votes for Sweden, Finland votes for Norway, etc.

But some extreme forms of game theory were often seen, where counties vote for their “kindred spirits” up to the point where they are competitors for their own country’s entry, where these cause cultural themes to detach. France will vote for the UK over Germany if the German entry is a competitor to the French song. Same goes for the Swedes.

All of this “tactical voting” was present last night. Tory MPs (with the exception of Ken Clarke) couldn’t be seen voting for Labour’s “song”, while no one actually wanted the “single market” – EFTA/EEA outcome, which had been a favorite of Tory MPs.

You gotta be sure that it’s something, Everybody’s gonna talk about

So it’s no surprise to us that the second referendum choice was the most popular, with 268 yes votes. Tactical voting (by the Tories) made sure it “lost” 268 to 295, but it’s plain that this tactical voting was conducted to make sure not one of the choices won a majority.

Don’t let your indecision

So most commentators will point to the compete lack of any clarity in the voting last night, to reach one of two conclusions.

You gotta play around

Either this makes PM May’s deal more likely when (if) it’s voted upon this week. The move by the ERG yesterday morning, to suddenly back her deal, certainly adds to this viewpoint. We instead see it as “playing around”.

And try to look as if you don’t care less

The other conclusion, which we accept is now certain to become a threat, is the no deal crash out scenario. The two “no deal” motions, the Baron version of No Deal and the “contingent preferential arrangements – 2yr standstill” option won 160 and 139 respectively, mainly Tory MPs. These MPs were keen to show they “don’t care less” about the potential risks of crashing out with no deal (NDC).

Of themselves, these 100+ MPs don’t matter given the 400 MPs who made clear they were against No Deal, but the sheer lack of clarity in the remaining votes, especially the lack of preference for customs union over other forms of “Brexit”, will encourage many commentators the NDC is now very likely.

Bending the rules of the game will let you find, The one you’re looking for

Alongside the flip-flopping of the ERG yesterday, we saw PM May appear to promise to the 1922 Committee that governs her party, that she would resign if her deal was accepted.

We noted here that she’s already promised to step down before the next election, and this new promise seems to simply “upgrade” soon to sooner.

We were reminded that in Bucks Fizz’s Eurovision performance, the two men whisk the skirts of the two ladies away, to reveal shorter skirts.

Did May simply shorten her tenure to provide some mild entertainment for those easily titivated?

But soon you will find that there comes a time, For making your mind up

And as such, in our minds, the song remains the same – No deal crash out panic leading to a second referendum as a last minute compromise.

So, in honor of the times when the UK dominated the Eurovision Song Contest, a little Bucks Fizz.

You gotta speed it up

And then you gotta slow it down

‘Cause if you believe that our love can hit the top

You gotta play around

But soon you will find that there comes a time

For making your mind up

You gotta turn it on

And then you gotta put it out

You gotta be sure that it’s something

Everybody’s gonna talk about

Before you decide that the times arrived

For making your mind up

Don’t let your indecision

Take you from behind

Trust your inner vision

Don’t let others change your mind

And then you really gotta burn it up

And make another fly by night

Get a run for your money and take a chance

And it’ll turn out right

And when you can see how it’s gotta be

You’re making your mind up

And try to look as if you don’t care less

But if you want to see some more

Bending the rules of the game will let you find

The one you’re looking for

And then you can show that you think you know

You’re making your mind up

Don’t let your indecision

Take you from behind

Trust your inner vision

Don’t let others change your mind

And now you really gotta speed it up (speed it up)

And then you gotta slow it down (slow it down)

‘Cause if you believe that our love can hit the top

You gotta play around

But soon you will find that there comes a time

For making your mind up

And now you really gotta speed it up (speed it up)

And then you gotta slow it down (slow it down)

‘Cause if you believe that our love can hit the top

You gotta play around

But soon you will find that there comes a time

For making your mind up

For making your mind up

For making your mind up

For making your mind up

Songwriters: Andy Gerard Hill / John Danter

Making Your Mind Up lyrics © Universal Music Publishing Group, Kobalt Music Publishing Ltd

NB – these are the (inflated) opinions of the author, and are NOT investment advice