Searching for explanation where it really matters
The Brexit clock ticks down to the last few months and still no way “out” in sight. Despite the optimism that a deal has been done, the political mood sours by the minute. Here we explore the ironic similarity between current events and the scene almost two hundred years before, and look for lessons offered.
This website is born of frustration. After many episodes of inflation, some of which triggered financial crisis, it remains clear that never in the field of finance have so many understood so little about so much (of importance). That concept is inflation. This website is an attempt to address that. So what is inflation, and …
Continue reading "Born of Frustration – how to think about inflation"
My ex-colleage and good friend Ken Leech often recounted that “the story of interest rates is the story of inflation”. Put differently, where inflation goes determines where interest rates go. Today, inflation is considered a mystery. Despite the trillions of dollars poured into the US, European and Japanese economies over the past ten years, inflation is …
Continue reading "Cracking the Genetic Code of Inflation – the future is “metallic gray”"
This review of the transition from LIBOR markets, initiated by the FCA statement in July 2017, was written in September 2017, whilst in a previous life. It remains relevant, albeit out of date. The full document was long and intended to provide a glossary of the issues clients would face as we progressed towards the …
Continue reading "The end of LIBOR – Rumors of my death have not been exaggerated (RODNE)"
In this post we detail the reference material supporting a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives. References Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks - Darrell Duffie and Jeremy C. Stein, JEP spring 2015 The Alternative Reference Rates Committee June 16, 2017 Presentation Materials Market Participants Group on Reforming Interest …
Continue reading "LIBOR / RODNE – References and Appendices."
In this post, the fourth and final of a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives, we look at how this will impact financial markets. Markets impacted by the retirement of LIBOR. The loss of LIBOR will impact, either directly, or indirectly, many markets. The impact on each will depend upon the …
In this post, the third of a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives, we discuss the consequences of such a vast monetary reform. Will LIBOR reform look like “Y2k for the legal profession?” Recall back in the late 1990s, industry woke up to the reality that computer code had been written …
In this post, the second of a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives, we look at what's being proposed to replace these key benchmarks. In future posts we’ll discuss how this will impact financial markets. Light is starting to emerge from the tunnel – is it an alternative benchmark? By acting now, …
In this post, the first of a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives, we look at where Libor came from, why it grew to such ubiquity, and where its flaws impact the stability of the whole global financial system. In future posts we’ll discuss what’s happening to these benchmark rates, …
Continue reading "LIBOR / RODNE Part 1 – Libor from whence it came"
Inflated Opinions 