Searching for explanation where it really matters
The much awaited, but much misunderstood BoJ meeting passed today. Like many Central Bank meetings (and indeed many Central Banks), these events are difficult to read precisely. And this no exception. The BoJ has managed to disappoint the full spectrum of market participants - from those that expected a clear reversal of policy, to those …
We measure inflation using “indices”. They are at best, very rough guides to the change in “average” prices in our economy. But they’re fraught with problems, like “whose average?” Or indeed who is Mr and Mrs Average? So the debate as to which method is righ is very important. We’re seeing such a debate in …
Continue reading "Fahrenheit 101 – why inflation indices are so controversial."
This website is born of frustration. After many episodes of inflation, some of which triggered financial crisis, it remains clear that never in the field of finance have so many understood so little about so much (of importance). That concept is inflation. This website is an attempt to address that. So what is inflation, and …
Continue reading "Born of Frustration – how to think about inflation"
Investors are disillusioned with active investment. Once the staple of institutional and retail investment practice, active now has an awful image – one of high cost mediocre offerings. While the rot was initially confined to equity, it has started to seep into fixed income. Here we try to understand why, and offer a simple solution, …
Continue reading "Get Active – why Active is in such disarray and how to save it"
Active investment is under siege – once the staple of institutional and retail investment practice, active now has an awful reputation. I recently met up with Colin Lloyd of Linear Investments in London, and in this short video we explore how we got here and why “Passive” investing isn’t the solution for a community desperate …
Continue reading "Video – Paul discusses the current plight of Active Investment"
It’s nearly 6 yrs since Mario Draghi compared the euro to a bumblebee and uttered “whatever it takes” to calm markets. So was born the Easy Bee, re-opening the credit channel and promoting some semblance of economic growth through out the Eurozone. A success ? Well to win, at first you have to survive. It’s …
My ex-colleage and good friend Ken Leech often recounted that “the story of interest rates is the story of inflation”. Put differently, where inflation goes determines where interest rates go. Today, inflation is considered a mystery. Despite the trillions of dollars poured into the US, European and Japanese economies over the past ten years, inflation is …
Continue reading "Cracking the Genetic Code of Inflation – the future is “metallic gray”"
Markets always have many things to worry about – some known knowns, some unknown knowns, even some known unknowns. However it’s always the unknown unknowns that really kill.Right now in the known unknowns camp, we might put inflation (is it finally going to bark?) and monetary policy (will global easing turn to global tightening?).Both are …
Continue reading "Markets have an uneasy feeling about uneasing."
This review of the transition from LIBOR markets, initiated by the FCA statement in July 2017, was written in September 2017, whilst in a previous life. It remains relevant, albeit out of date. The full document was long and intended to provide a glossary of the issues clients would face as we progressed towards the …
Continue reading "The end of LIBOR – Rumors of my death have not been exaggerated (RODNE)"
In this post we detail the reference material supporting a series of posts addressing the end of Libor and her relatives. References Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks - Darrell Duffie and Jeremy C. Stein, JEP spring 2015 The Alternative Reference Rates Committee June 16, 2017 Presentation Materials Market Participants Group on Reforming Interest …
Continue reading "LIBOR / RODNE – References and Appendices."
