Searching for explanation where it really matters
With proceedings following our previous note almost to the letter, it’s been unnecessary to write again until now. Today Parliament attempted to take full control of the proceedings having seen the acquiescence by the EU to extend past March 29th. In this short note we explain how we see this panning out, and our confidence …
In what may seem an unusual post for the Inflated Opinions website, we wanted to pay homage to the heroes we grew up with, and tell the story of one of soccer’s greatest giant killings. We hope it will inspire bravery and perseverance on a broader spectrum than just soccer. 50 years ago today, 15th …
Continue reading "Oh’ Danny’s Boys – the story of a soccer giant killing"
Seems it’s all going to plan When we last wrote, we could see the negotiations on the road to nowhere, and little reason to change our core view ; 90% Extension followed by (conditional on) second referendum 10% no deal crash out (NDC) The song remains the same. If there's a bustle in your hedgerow …
Continue reading "Brexit – The song remains the same – no stairway to heaven "
As we’ve been writing the past year, with no possibility of a Brexit deal being made, we saw only extension followed by a second referendum as the likely outcome. We feel the events of the past 10 days have made this more obvious, though still surprisingly not consensus. So now we move onto what we …
In this short post we summarize where we are with Brexit. In sum, we’re leaving together, it’s the final countdown. https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/retirement?iso=20190329T23&p0=136&msg=Brexit+Countdown+Timer&font=cursive So we’re into the last 50 days before the buzzer - 42 days, 2 hours and 007 mins and 007 seconds, to be precise. So where are we? But still it's farewell Well firstly, everyone …
Continue reading "Brexit – The Final Countdown, written by Joe Tempest, sung by Europe"
As the Brexit clock continues to run down to the buzzer, we’ve entered a new phase - one where the PM’s only negotiating strategy is that of (headless) chicken. By allowing Parliament, which recognizes its moral obligation to prevent chaos, to flail hopelessly from one amendment to another, PM May hopes to run the clock …
Today I want to tell a story – of how history rhymes, how human behavior can suddenly change, and how technology is set to enforce change. What’s to be positive about - how about everything? A traveler in Ireland asked a local how to get to Tipperary – the local rubbed his chin, thought a …
Continue reading "New Directions – the Fourth Turning into the Third Industrial Revolution."
That we're still discussing the US/China relationship, especially the trade front, should not be a surprise. What is a surprise is the one-dimensional perspective commentators take. To us, this is nothing like a conventional trade war, and instead is the predictable "conflict of self interests"; a path that the two superpowers have long been on. …
Continue reading "US/China Trade Relations – China Syndromes?"
Markets have been taking center stage since the vol-ruption nearly a year ago, and while realized volatility has indeed increased alongside implied, options markets Vix-volatility, many have taken this to mean the end is nigh and all manner of skies are about to fall. This may be true, but there is another, orthogonal perspective which …
Continue reading "Financial markets and the credit cycle – Are we there yet dad?"
With the Fed already several hikes (and many billions in portfolio run-off ) down the road to policy re-alignment, it's natural for a new Fed Chair to consider a pause for reflection. Especially with financial markets doing most of the work, tightening financial conditions and reminding both market and economic participants alike, that the cycle …
Continue reading "Fed – the pause that nurtures the teenage bull"
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